After two consecutive years of declines in sales, the marketplace registered 3.3% fewer vehicles, to 188,944 units, during Q110, meaning that domestic product sales are yet to bottom out. Provided that we expect demand in 2010 to be assisted through the base effect from 2009 sales, we forecast sales to grow by just over 6% y-o-y, to 834,000 units, by 2010. However, impeded by an anticipated slowdown within the US economic activity in 2011 and the proposed tax hikes domestically, we anticipate autos product sales to recover to 1.12mn units by the end of 2014, getting only partially recovered from the one.14mn models sold in 2007. Recovery in autos manufacturing, however, is most likely to become quicker, as we anticipate carmakers to increasingly focus on exports to drive up their capability utilisation. Following a close to 10% y-o-y improve in production, to 1.73mn models in 2010, we expect manufacturing to achieve 2.33mn models through the finish of 2014. We believe that a major support to this level will arrive from targeting much more growth-promising markets in Latin American and Asia, and autos a la venta en mexico. Indicators of these currently surfaced last year when India’s Tata Motors, in collaboration with local manufacturer Grupo Autofin, announced plans to create its ultra-low-cost Nano design in Mexico from 2012 with the view to supply its automobiles in the Latin American marketplace. Meanwhile, Honda Motor, in November final yr, made an investment of US$6mn in a production line at its El Salto plant to help assemble its new CR-V sport utility vehicle (SUV) venta de autos 0km at the plant. Certainly, such investments have assisted Mexico rank within the third placement in BMI’s regional ratings this quarter. BMI points out that an additional benefit to Mexico from this kind of expansions is going to be the emergence of an integrated supplier base, within the presence of the two nearby and international suppliers. Having built powerful associations with global clients, most Mexican suppliers are venturing for worldwide recognition and expertise through acquisition of businesses of their competing global firms. Metalsa and Katcom present stand since the best example of the autos usados a la venta trend. While the Mexican cars industry association AMIA has called for the government to introduce regulations and incentives to encourage new vehicle sales, BMI stresses that enhanced autos financing provides the best feasible assistance for recuperation in the country’s autos demand.
Aug 29